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Two Grains Of Wheat In Two Barrels Of Chaff

When it comes to foolishness, Shakespeare always gets straight to the point -- which brings to mind the work it usually takes to get the point of most financial media "analysis," because it's so often overwhelmed by useless chaff. And sadly, wheat is no exception

Elliott Wave: Narrow Down Your Options

Fact: you never know for sure what kind of Elliott wave structure you're dealing with until it's complete. That's a sobering fact for many Elliott wave beginners. They often expect to count perfect five and three-wave structures in charts all the way down to milliseconds. But you just can't. For one, it has to do with the limitations of your data feed. But even if your data were perfect, some ambiguity with real-time wave counts would still remain. Here's how you handle that...

Will OIL Prices Continue To Fall?

Public (Economic) Enemy Number One -- the soaring oil market -- has been caught. The damage from its record-smashing rally contained. From their all-time July 11, 2008 peak, crude prices have plunged to a three-month low. One day before the FALL, our Specialty Service Energy Outlook acknowledged the market's downside potential...

The (non) Effect Of Rain On Corn Prices

The financial media is very fond of linking a given market's price action to other stuff that happened in the same day -- but seldom do they explain why. First prices fall hard "as rain and cooler weather improved prospects for crops" -- and second, this one-day action is part of a 30% decline in corn over the past five weeks. But what about the first four weeks of that price decline, which included a shortage of rain and hotter-than-usual temperatures?

Real Estate and "Phone Book Guys"

In the U.S, they have become as ubiquitous as hotdog street vendors, or a McDonald's at every highway exit – lawyer ads on the back of the phone book. In the age of Blackberries, phone books aren’t what they used to be, and those back-cover ads are unbelievably expensive. Yet, with the lawsuit now pending by the state of New York against Swiss bank UBS AG, those phone book lawyer guys are likely to get a whole lot busier...

U.S. Bond Market: The Look Of Fear... and Failure

Anxiety is to a rising market what a flaming torch is to a hot-air balloon. And, as one of the most reliable measures of collective investor emotion, the record widening of the Junk-to-Treasury Yield Spread over the last year shows exactly why the finanical sector has gone "Pop!"

The Mortgage and Credit Crisis in the United States

Many people think the Fed has “saved” Fannie and Freddie, and the FDIC will “save” all depositors from the effects of the mortgage and credit crisis in the United States. Most people hope the crisis is just another temporary interruption in the “normal” bull market, and a return to the status quo is just around the corner.

The Biggest Financial Shoe Drops: Consumer Spending

Given the amount of economic turmoil the U.S. faces today, the government will adopt a "Saving Private Ryan" policy regarding consumer spending: Keep Alive and Well at All Costs. Problem is, their rescue schemes have come too late...

Why 'Bye, Bye Bears' Means Just the Opposite

In fact, a hopeful viewpoint that the market bottom is in displays exactly what bear markets bring out in investors – the hope that things will turn around just after the next market dip. This behavior is analogous to investors worrying at the beginning of a bear market, behavior that famously has been shortened into the adage, "bull markets climb a Wall of Worry."

European Stocks: Ahead Of The U.S., Or Behind It?

Many adopt the view that "the world catches a cold when America sneezes." We could, however, argue that the turbulence started in the UK and spread to the U.S.! See this chart for details.

Video: Chinese, Indian Stocks Divergences Tell A Story

Sometimes the simplest technical analysis indicators can also prove to be the most useful ones, again and again. Watch this free video for details.